Long-term cardiovascular disease risk after anthracycline and trastuzumab treatments in U.S. breast cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Although breast cancer survivors are at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) from treatment late effects, evidence to inform long-term and age-specific cardiovascular surveillance recommendations is lacking. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 10,211 women diagnosed with first primary unilateral breast cancer in Kaiser Permanente Washington or Colorado (aged 20+, survived ≥1 year). We estimated multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for associations between initial chemotherapy regimen type (anthracycline and/or trastuzumab, other chemotherapies, no chemotherapy [reference]) and CVD risk, adjusted for patient characteristics, other treatments, and CVD risk factors. Cumulative incidence was calculated considering competing events. RESULTS: After 5.79 median years, 14.67% of women developed CVD (cardiomyopathy/heart failure (CM/HF), ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke). Women treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab had a higher risk of CVD compared with no chemotherapy (aHR=1.53,95%CI=1.31-1.79), persisting 5+years post-diagnosis (aHR5-<10 years=1.85,95%CI=1.44-2.39;aHR10+ years=1.83,95%CI=1.34-2.49). CM/HF risks were elevated among women treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab compared with no chemotherapy, especially for ages<65 (aHR20-54years=2.97,95%CI=1.72-5.12;aHR55-64years=2.21,95%CI=1.52-3.21), differing for older women (aHR65+years=1.32,95%CI=0.97-1.78), and 5+years post-diagnosis (aHR5-<10years=1.89,95%CI=1.35-2.64;aHR10+years=2.21,95%CI=1.52-3.20). Anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab receipt was associated with increased IHD risks after 5+years (aHR5-<10years=1.51,95%CI=1.06-2.14;aHR10+years=1.86,95%CI=1.18-2.93) with no clear age effects, and stroke risk (aHR=1.33,95%CI=1.05-1.69) which did not vary by time or age. There was some evidence of long-term CM/HF and IHD risks with other chemotherapies. Among women aged<65 treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab, up to 16% developed CVD by 10-years (20-54=6.91%;55-64=16.00%), driven by CM/HF (20-54=3.90%;55-64=9.78%). CONCLUSIONS: We found increased long-term risks of CM/HF and IHD among breast cancer survivors treated with anthracyclines and/or trastuzumab, and increased CM/HF risk among women aged<65.

Genetic susceptibility to chronic diseases leads to heart failure among Europeans: the influence of leukocyte telomere length.

BACKGROUND: Genetic susceptibility to various chronic diseases has been shown to influence heart failure (HF) risk. However, the underlying biological pathways, particularly the role of leukocyte telomere length (LTL), are largely unknown. We investigated the impact of genetic susceptibility to chronic diseases and various traits on HF risk, and whether LTL mediates or modifies the pathways. METHODS: We conducted prospective cohort analyses on 404 883 European participants from the UK Biobank, including 9989 incident HF cases. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate associations between HF risk and 24 polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for various diseases or traits previously generated using a Bayesian approach. We assessed multiplicative interactions between the PRSs and LTL previously measured in the UK Biobank using quantitative PCR. Causal mediation analyses were conducted to estimate the proportion of the total effect of PRSs acting indirectly through LTL, an integrative marker of biological aging. RESULTS: We identified 9 PRSs associated with HF risk, including those for various cardiovascular diseases or traits, rheumatoid arthritis (P = 1.3E-04), and asthma (P = 1.8E-08). Additionally, longer LTL was strongly associated with decreased HF risk (P-trend = 1.7E-08). Notably, LTL strengthened the asthma-HF relationship significantly (P-interaction = 2.8E-03). However, LTL mediated only 1.13% (P < 0.001) of the total effect of the asthma PRS on HF risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings shed light onto the shared genetic susceptibility between HF risk, asthma, rheumatoid arthritis, and other traits. Longer LTL strengthened the genetic effect of asthma in the pathway to HF. These results support consideration of LTL and PRSs in HF risk prediction.

The impact of multimorbidity and functional limitation on quality of life in patients with heart failure: A multi-site study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity and functional limitation are associated with poor outcomes in heart failure (HF). However, the individual and combined effect of these on health-related quality of life in patients with HF is not well understood. METHODS: Patients aged ≥30 years with two or more HF diagnostic codes and one or more HF-related prescription drugs from four U.S. institutions were mailed a survey to measure patient-centric factors including functional status (activities of daily living [ADLs]) and health-related quality of life (PROMIS-29 Health Profile). Patients with HF from January 1, 2013 to February 1, 2018 were included. Multimorbidity was defined as ≥2 non-cardiovascular comorbidities; functional limitation as any limitation in at least one of eight ADLs. Patients were categorized into four groups by multimorbidity (Yes/No) and functional limitation (Yes/No). We dichotomized the PROMIS-29 sub-scale scores at the median and calculated odd ratios for the four multimorbidity/functional limitation groups. RESULTS: A total of 3330 patients with HF returned the survey (response rate 31%); 3020 completed the questions of interest and were retained. Among these patients (45% female; mean age 73 [standard deviation: 12] years), 29% had neither multimorbidity nor functional limitation, 24% had multimorbidity only, 22% had functional limitation only, and 25% had both. After adjustment, having functional limitation only was associated with higher anxiety (odds ratio [OR]: 3.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.66-4.45), depression (OR: 3.11, 95% CI: 2.39-4.06), and fatigue (OR: 4.19, 95% CI: 3.25-5.40); worse sleep (OR: 2.14, 95% CI: 1.69-2.72) and pain (OR: 6.73, 95% CI: 5.15-8.78); and greater difficulty with social activities (OR: 9.40, 95% CI: 7.19-12.28) compared with having neither. Results were similar for having both multimorbidity and functional limitation. CONCLUSION: Patients with only functional limitation have similar poor health-related quality of life scores as those with both multimorbidity and functional limitation, underscoring the important role that physical functioning plays in the well-being of patients with HF.

Discordance Between Very Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Increases Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Geographically Defined Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Clinical risk scores are used to identify those at high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Despite preventative efforts, residual risk remains for many individuals. Very low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (VLDL-C) and lipid discordance could be contributors to the residual risk of ASCVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cardiovascular disease-free residents, aged ≥40 years, living in Olmsted County, Minnesota, were identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and VLDL-C were estimated from clinically ordered lipid panels using the Sampson equation. Participants were categorized into concordant and discordant lipid pairings based on clinical cut points. Rates of incident ASCVD, including percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke, or myocardial infarction, were calculated during follow-up. The association of LDL-C and VLDL-C with ASCVD was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Interaction between LDL-C and VLDL-C was assessed. The study population (n=39 098) was primarily White race (94%) and female sex (57%), with a mean age of 54 years. VLDL-C (per 10-mg/dL increase) was significantly associated with an increased risk of incident ASCVD (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.05-1.09]; P<0.001]) after adjustment for traditional risk factors. The interaction between LDL-C and VLDL-C was not statistically significant (P=0.11). Discordant individuals with high VLDL-C and low LDL-C experienced the highest rate of incident ASCVD events, 16.9 per 1000 person-years, during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: VLDL-C and lipid discordance are associated with a greater risk of ASCVD and can be estimated from clinically ordered lipid panels to improve ASCVD risk assessment.

Lipoprotein Insulin Resistance Score and Mortality Risk Stratification in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Higher total serum cholesterol is associated with lower mortality in heart failure. Evaluating associations between lipoprotein subfractions and mortality among people with heart failure may provide insights into this observation. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled a community cohort of people with heart failure from 2003 to 2012 and assessed vital status through 2021. Plasma collected at enrollment was used to measure lipoprotein subfractions via nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. A composite score of 6 lipoprotein subfractions was generated using the lipoprotein insulin resistance index (LP-IR) algorithm. Using covariate-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, we evaluated associations between LP-IR score and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1382 patients with heart failure (median follow-up 13.9 years), a one-standard-deviation (SD) increment in LP-IR score was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-0.99). Among LP-IR parameters, mean high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle size was significantly associated with lower mortality (HR per 1-SD decrement in mean HDL particle size = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.89), suggesting that the inverse association between LP-IR score and mortality may be driven by smaller mean HDL particle size. CONCLUSIONS: LP-IR score was inversely associated with mortality among patients with heart failure and may be driven by smaller HDL particle size.

A large, multi-center survey assessing health, social support, literacy, and self-management resources in patients with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Most patients with heart failure (HF) have multimorbidity which may cause difficulties with self-management. Understanding the resources patients draw upon to effectively manage their health is fundamental to designing new practice models to improve outcomes in HF. We describe the rationale, conceptual framework, and implementation of a multi-center survey of HF patients, characterize differences between responders and non-responders, and summarize patient characteristics and responses to the survey constructs among responders. METHODS: This was a multi-center cross-sectional survey study with linked electronic health record (EHR) data. Our survey was guided by the Chronic Care Model to understand the distribution of patient-centric factors, including health literacy, social support, self-management, and functional and mental status in patients with HF. Most questions were from existing validated questionnaires. The survey was administered to HF patients aged ≥ 30 years from 4 health systems in PCORnet® (the National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network): Essentia Health, Intermountain Health, Mayo Clinic, and The Ohio State University. Each health system mapped their EHR data to a standardized PCORnet Common Data Model, which was used to extract demographic and clinical data on survey responders and non-responders. RESULTS: Across the 4 sites, 10,662 patients with HF were invited to participate, and 3330 completed the survey (response rate: 31%). Responders were older (74 vs. 71 years; standardized difference (95% CI): 0.18 (0.13, 0.22)), less racially diverse (3% vs. 12% non-White; standardized difference (95% CI): -0.32 (-0.36, -0.28)), and had higher prevalence of many chronic conditions than non-responders, and thus may not be representative of all HF patients. The internal reliability of the validated questionnaires in our survey was good (range of Cronbach's alpha: 0.50-0.96). Responders reported their health was generally good or fair, they frequently had cardiovascular comorbidities, > 50% had difficulty climbing stairs, and > 10% reported difficulties with bathing, preparing meals, and using transportation. Nearly 80% of patients had family or friends sit with them during a doctor visit, and 54% managed their health by themselves. Patients reported generally low perceived support for self-management related to exercise and diet. CONCLUSIONS: More than half of patients with HF managed their health by themselves. Increased understanding of self-management resources may guide the development of interventions to improve HF outcomes.

Incremental Value of a Metabolic Risk Score for Heart Failure Mortality: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is heterogeneous syndrome with persistently high mortality. Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy enables high-throughput metabolomics, suitable for precision phenotyping. We aimed to use targeted metabolomics to derive a metabolic risk score (MRS) that improved mortality risk stratification in heart failure. METHODS: Nuclear magnetic resonance was used to measure 21 metabolites (lipoprotein subspecies, branched-chain amino acids, alanine, GlycA (glycoprotein acetylation), ketone bodies, glucose, and citrate) in plasma collected from a heart failure community cohort. The MRS was derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalized Cox regression and temporal validation. The association between the MRS and mortality and whether risk stratification was improved over the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure clinical risk score and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) levels were assessed. RESULTS: The study included 1382 patients (median age, 78 years, 52% men, 43% reduced ejection fraction) with a 5-year survival rate of 48% (95% CI, 46%-51%). The MRS included 9 metabolites measured. In the validation data set, a 1 standard deviation increase in the MRS was associated with a large increased rate of death (hazard ratio, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.9-2.5]) that remained after adjustment for Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score and NT-proBNP (hazard ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.3-1.9]). These associations did not differ by ejection fraction. The integrated discrimination and net reclassification indices, and Uno's C statistic, indicated that the addition of the MRS improved discrimination over Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure and NT-proBNP. CONCLUSIONS: This MRS developed in a heart failure community cohort was associated with a large excess risk of death and improved risk stratification beyond an established risk score and clinical markers.

Pre-diagnostic free androgen and estradiol levels influence heart failure risk in both women and men: A prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank.

AIMS: Serum sex hormones have been linked to cardiovascular disease risk. However, their roles in the pathogenesis of heart failure (HF) in both men and women are unclear. We investigated the associations between free androgen, testosterone, and estradiol, and future risk of HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective cohort study evaluated UK Biobank participants free of prevalent cardiovascular disease and HF at baseline. Unitless free androgen, testosterone, and estradiol indices were generated using serum concentrations of total testosterone (nmol/L), estradiol (pmol/L), sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG, nmol/L), and albumin (g/L) in blood collected at enrolment. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident HF in relation to quartiles (Q) of free androgen (FAI), testosterone (FTI), estradiol (FEI) indices, and potential confounders. There were 180 712 men (including 5585 HF cases with FAI and 571 HF cases with FEI), and 177 324 women (including 2858 HF cases with FAI and 314 HF cases with FEI) with complete data. Increased FAI was associated with decreased HF risk in both men (HRQ4 vs. Q1: 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.94, p-trendcontinuous < 0.0001) and post-menopausal women (HRQ4 vs. Q1: 0.83, 95% CI 0.73-0.95). Similar inverse associations were observed for FTI only in men (HRQ4 vs. Q1: 0.91, 95% CI 0.83-0.98). Higher FEI was significantly associated with decreased HF risk among men (HRQ4 vs. Q1: 0.76, 95% CI 0.59-0.98), but was positively associated among pre-menopausal women (HRQ4 vs. Q1: 2.16, 95% CI 1.11-4.18). CONCLUSIONS: Sex hormones potentially influence HF pathogenesis and may offer pathways for interventions.

The Importance of Estimating Excess Deaths Regionally During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

National or statewide estimates of excess deaths have limited value to understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic regionally. We assessed excess deaths in a 9-county geographically defined population that had low rates of COVID-19 and widescale availability of testing early in the pandemic, well-annotated clinical data, and coverage by 2 medical examiner's offices. We compared mortality rates (MRs) per 100,000 person-years in 2020 and 2021 with those in the 2019 reference period and MR ratios (MRRs). In 2020 and 2021, 177 and 219 deaths, respectively, were attributed to COVID-19 (MR = 52 and 66 per 100,000 person-years, respectively). COVID-19 MRs were highest in males, older persons, those living in rural areas, and those with 7 or more chronic conditions. Compared with 2019, we observed a 10% excess death rate in 2020 (MRR = 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.15]), with excess deaths in females, older adults, and those with 7 or more chronic conditions. In contrast, we did not observe excess deaths overall in 2021 compared with 2019 (MRR = 1.04 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.10]). However, those aged 18 to 39 years (MRR = 1.36 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.80) and those with 0 or 1 chronic condition (MRR = 1.28 [95% CI, 1.05 to 1.56]) or 7 or more chronic conditions (MRR = 1.09 [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.15]) had increased mortality compared with 2019. This work highlights the value of leveraging regional populations that experienced a similar pandemic wave timeline, mitigation strategies, testing availability, and data quality.

Frailty and Metabolic Vulnerability in Heart Failure: A Community Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is common in heart failure (HF) and is associated with death but not routinely captured clinically. Frailty is linked with inflammation and malnutrition, which can be assessed by a novel plasma multimarker score: the metabolic vulnerability index (MVX). We sought to evaluate the associations between frailty and MVX and their prognostic impact. METHODS AND RESULTS: In an HF community cohort (2003-2012), we measured frailty as a proportion of deficits present out of 32 physical limitations and comorbidities, MVX by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, and collected extensive longitudinal clinical data. Patients were categorized by frailty score (≤0.14, >0.14 and ≤0.27, >0.27) and MVX score (≤50, >50 and ≤60, >60 and ≤70, >70). Cox models estimated associations of frailty and MVX with death, adjusted for Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide). Uno's C-statistic measured the incremental value of MVX beyond frailty and clinical factors. Weibull's accelerated failure time regression assessed whether MVX mediated the association between frailty and death. We studied 985 patients (median age, 77; 48% women). Frailty and MVX were weakly correlated (Spearman's ρ=0.21). The highest frailty group experienced an increased rate of death, independent of MVX, MAGGIC score, and NT-proBNP (hazard ratio, 3.3 [95% CI, 2.5-4.2]). Frailty improved Uno's c-statistic beyond MAGGIC score and NT-proBNP (0.69-0.73). MVX only mediated 3.3% and 4.5% of the association between high and medium frailty groups and death, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this HF cohort, frailty and MVX are weakly correlated. Both independently contribute to stratifying the risk of death, suggesting that they capture distinct domains of vulnerability in HF.

Circulating ketone bodies and mortality in heart failure: a community cohort study.

Background: The relationship between ketone bodies (KB) and mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) syndrome has not been well established. Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the distribution of KB in HF, identify clinical correlates, and examine the associations between plasma KB and all-cause mortality in a population-based HF cohort. Methods: The plasma KB levels were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Multivariable linear regression was used to examine associations between clinical correlates and KB levels. Proportional hazard regression was employed to examine associations between KB (represented as both continuous and categorical variables) and mortality, with adjustment for several clinical covariates. Results: Among the 1,382 HF patients with KB measurements, the median (IQR) age was 78 (68, 84) and 52% were men. The median (IQR) KB was found to be 180 (134, 308) µM. Higher KB levels were associated with advanced HF (NYHA class III-IV) and higher NT-proBNP levels (both P < 0.001). The median follow-up was 13.9 years, and the 5-year mortality rate was 51.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 49.1%-54.4%]. The risk of death increased when KB levels were higher (HRhigh vs. low group 1.23; 95% CI: 1.05-1.44), independently of a validated clinical risk score. The association between higher KB and mortality differed by ejection fraction (EF) and was noticeably stronger among patients with preserved EF. Conclusions: Most patients with HF exhibited KB levels that were consistent with those found in healthy adults. Elevated levels of KB were observed in patients with advanced HF. Higher KB levels were found to be associated with an increased risk of death, particularly in patients with preserved EF.

Development and Validation of a Protein Risk Score for Mortality in Heart Failure : A Community Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with high mortality. Current risk stratification approaches lack precision. High-throughput proteomics could improve risk prediction. Its use in clinical practice to guide the management of patients with HF depends on validation and evidence of clinical benefit. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a protein risk score for mortality in patients with HF. DESIGN: Community-based cohort. SETTING: Southeast Minnesota. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with HF enrolled between 2003 and 2012 and followed through 2021. MEASUREMENTS: A total of 7289 plasma proteins in 1351 patients with HF were measured using the SomaScan Assay (SomaLogic). A protein risk score was derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and temporal validation in patients enrolled between 2003 and 2007 (development cohort) and 2008 and 2012 (validation cohort). Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between the protein risk score and mortality. The performance of the protein risk score to predict 5-year mortality risk was assessed using calibration plots, decision curves, and relative utility analyses and compared with a clinical model, including the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure mortality risk score and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. RESULTS: The development (n = 855; median age, 78 years; 50% women; 29% with ejection fraction <40%) and validation cohorts (n = 496; median age, 76 years; 45% women; 33% with ejection fraction <40%) were mostly similar. In the development cohort, 38 unique proteins were selected for the protein risk score. Independent of ejection fraction, the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration, reclassified mortality risk particularly at the extremes of the risk distribution, and showed greater clinical utility compared with the clinical model. LIMITATION: Participants were predominantly of European ancestry, potentially limiting the generalizability of the findings to different patient populations. CONCLUSION: Validation of the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration and evidence of predicted benefits to stratify the risk for death in HF superior to that of clinical methods. Further studies are needed to prospectively evaluate the score's performance in diverse populations and determine risk thresholds for interventions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Division of Intramural Research at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Proteomics for heart failure risk stratification: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with persistently high mortality. High-throughput proteomic technologies offer new opportunities to improve HF risk stratification, but their contribution remains to be clearly defined. We aimed to systematically review prognostic studies using high-throughput proteomics to identify protein signatures associated with HF mortality. METHODS: We searched four databases and two clinical trial registries for articles published from 2012 to 2023. HF proteomics studies measuring high numbers of proteins using aptamer or antibody-based affinity platforms on human plasma or serum with outcomes of all-cause or cardiovascular death were included. Two reviewers independently screened articles, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. A third reviewer resolved conflicts. We assessed the risk of bias using the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies-of Exposure tool. RESULTS: Out of 5131 unique articles identified, nine articles were included in the review. The nine studies were observational; three used the aptamer platform, and six used the antibody platform. We found considerable heterogeneity across studies in measurement panels, HF definitions, ejection fraction categorization, follow-up duration, and outcome definitions, and a lack of risk estimates for most protein associations. Hence, we proceeded with a systematic review rather than a meta-analysis. In two comparable aptamer studies in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction, 21 proteins were identified in common for the association with all-cause death. Among these, one protein, WAP four-disulfide core domain protein 2 was also reported in an antibody study on HFrEF and for the association with CV death. We proposed standardized reporting criteria to facilitate the interpretation of future studies. CONCLUSIONS: In this systematic review of nine studies evaluating the association of proteomics with mortality in HF, we identified a limited number of proteins common across several studies. Heterogeneity across studies compromised drawing broad inferences, underscoring the importance of standardized approaches to reporting.

The Metabolic Vulnerability Index: A Novel Marker for Mortality Prediction in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation and protein energy malnutrition are associated with heart failure (HF) mortality. The metabolic vulnerability index (MVX) is derived from markers of inflammation and malnutrition and measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. MVX has not been examined in HF. OBJECTIVES: The authors sought to examine the prognostic value of MVX in patients with HF. METHODS: The authors prospectively assembled a population-based cohort of patients with HF from 2003 to 2012 and measured MVX scores with a nuclear magnetic resonance scan from plasma collected at enrollment. Patients were divided into 4 MVX score groups and followed until March 31, 2021. RESULTS: The authors studied 1,382 patients (median age: 78 years; 48% women). The median MVX score was 64.6. Patients with higher MVX were older, more likely to be male, have atrial fibrillation, have higher NYHA functional class, and have HF duration of >18 months. Higher MVX was associated with mortality independent of Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score, ejection fraction, and other prognostic biomarkers. Compared to those with the lowest MVX, the HRs for MVX groups 2, 3, and 4 were 1.2 (95% CI: 0.9-1.4), 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-2.0), and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.4-2.2), respectively (Ptrend < 0.001). Measures of model improvement document the added value of MVX in HF for classifying the risk of death beyond the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score and other biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: In this HF community cohort, MVX was strongly associated with mortality independently of established clinical factors and improved mortality risk classification beyond clinically validated markers. These data underscore the potential of MVX to stratify risk in HF.

Incidence and outcomes of high bleeding risk patients with type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction in a community-based cohort: Application of the Academic Research Consortium High Bleeding Risk Criteria.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The incidence and outcomes of high bleeding risk (HBR) patients in a community cohort according to the Academic Research Consortium (ARC) criteria is not known. We hypothesized that HBR is common and associated with worse outcomes for all-comers with myocardial infarction. METHODS: We prospectively collected all patients with cardiac troponin T > 99th percentile upper limit of normal (≥0.01 ng/mL) in Olmsted County between 2003 and 2012. Events were retrospectively classified as type 1 myocardial infarction (T1MI), type 2 myocardial infarction (T2MI), or myocardial injury. Patients were further classified as HBR based on the "ARC-HBR definition." Outcomes included all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, recurrent MI, stroke, and major bleeding. RESULTS: 2419 patients were included in the final study; 1365 were classified as T1MI and 1054 as T2MI. Patients were followed for a median of 5.5 years. ARC-HBR was more common in T2MI than T1MI (73% vs 46%, p < 0.001). Among patients with T1MI, HBR was associated with higher all-cause mortality (HR 3.7, 95% CI 3.2-4.5, p < 0.001), cardiovascular mortality (4.7, 3.6-6.3, p < 0.001), recurrent MI (2.1, 1.6-2.7, p < 0.001), stroke (4.9, 2.9-8.4, p < 0.001), and major bleeding (6.5, 3.7-11.4, p < 0.001). For T2MI, HBR was similarly associated with higher all-cause mortality (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.8-2.5, p < 0.001), cardiovascular mortality (2.7, 1.8-4.0, p < 0.001), recurrent MI (1.7, 1.1-2.6, p = 0.02) and major bleeding (HR 15.6, 3.8-63.8, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: HBR is common among unselected patients with T1MI and T2MI and is associated with increased overall and cardiovascular mortality, recurrent cardiovascular events, and major bleeding on long-term follow up.

Patient Awareness of Heart Failure Diagnosis: A Community Study.

Background Heart failure (HF) is a complex disease that contributes to a high number of hospitalizations, deaths, and economic health care costs each year. However, among patients with HF, there is a lack of awareness of their HF diagnosis that has not been fully examined. Methods and Results Residents from 3 counties of southeast Minnesota with a first-ever International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) code 428 or Tenth Revision (ICD-10) code I50 between January 1, 2013 and March 31, 2016 (N=2461) were prospectively surveyed to measure HF self-awareness. A total of 1114 patients returned the survey (response rate, 45%), and 787 had validated HF upon medical record review. Among these 787 patients with HF (mean age, 76 years; 53% men), 37% (n=293) were aware of their HF diagnosis. After adjustment, being a woman (odds ratio [OR], 1.56 [95% CI, 1.10-2.22]), having HF with reduced ejection fraction (OR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.13-2.22]), attending the HF clinic (OR, 4.07 [95% CI, 2.25-7.36]), and having coronary artery disease (OR, 1.65 [95% CI, 1.16-2.37]) were all associated with increased awareness of an HF diagnosis. Conversely, having diabetes was associated with decreased awareness of an HF diagnosis (adjusted OR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.50-0.95]). Conclusions Awareness of an HF diagnosis is low in a community population of patients with HF. Strategies to improve patient awareness of their diagnosis should be implemented to improve self-care behaviors and outcomes in patients with HF.

Bicuspid aortic valve: long-term morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) is the most common congenital heart anomaly. Lifetime morbidity and whether long-term survival varies according to BAV patient-sub-groups are unknown. This study aimed to assess lifetime morbidity and long-term survival in BAV patients in the community. METHODS: The authors retrospectively identified all Olmsted County (Minnesota) residents with an echocardiographic diagnosis of BAV from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2009, including patients with typical valvulo-aortopathy (BAV without accelerated valvulo-aortopathy or associated disorders), and those with complex valvulo-aortopathy (BAV with accelerated valvulo-aortopathy or associated disorders). RESULTS: 652 consecutive diagnosed BAV patients [median (IQR) age 37 (22-53) years; 525 (81%) adult and 127 (19%) paediatric] were followed for a median (IQR) of 19.1 (12.9-25.8) years. The total cumulative lifetime morbidity burden (from birth to age 90) was 86% (95% CI 82.5-89.7); cumulative lifetime progression to ≥ moderate aortic stenosis or regurgitation, aortic valve surgery, aortic aneurysm ≥45 mm or z-score ≥3, aorta surgery, infective endocarditis and aortic dissection was 80.3%, 68.5%, 75.4%, 27%, 6% and 1.6%, respectively. Survival of patients with typical valvulo-aortopathy [562 (86%), age 40 (28-55) years, 86% adults] was similar to age-sex-matched Minnesota population (P = .12). Conversely, survival of patients with complex valvulo-aortopathy [90 (14%), age 14 (3-26) years, 57% paediatric] was lower than expected, with a relative excess mortality risk of 2.25 (95% CI 1.21-4.19) (P = .01). CONCLUSION: The BAV condition exhibits a high lifetime morbidity burden where valvulo-aortopathy is close to unavoidable by age 90. The lifetime incidence of infective endocarditis is higher than that of aortic dissection. The most common BAV clinical presentation is the typical valvulo-aortopathy with preserved expected long-term survival, while the complex valvulo-aortopathy presentation incurs higher mortality.

Association Between Fluctuations in Blood Lipid Levels Over Time With Incident Alzheimer Disease and Alzheimer Disease-Related Dementias.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Prevention strategies for Alzheimer disease and Alzheimer disease-related dementias (AD/ADRDs) are urgently needed. Lipid variability, or fluctuations in blood lipid levels at different points in time, has not been examined extensively and may contribute to the risk of AD/ADRD. Lipid panels are a part of routine screening in clinical practice and routinely available in electronic health records (EHR). Thus, in a large geographically defined population-based cohort, we investigated the variation of multiple lipid types and their association to the development of AD/ADRD. METHODS: All residents living in Olmsted County, Minnesota on the index date January 1, 2006, aged 60 years or older without an AD/ADRD diagnosis were identified. Persons with ≥3 lipid measurements including total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) in the 5 years before index date were included. Lipid variation was defined as any change in individual's lipid levels over time regardless of direction and was measured using variability independent of the mean (VIM). Associations between lipid variation quintiles and incident AD/ADRD were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Participants were followed through 2018 for incident AD/ADRD. RESULTS: The final analysis included 11,571 participants (mean age 71 years; 54% female). Median follow-up was 12.9 years with 2,473 incident AD/ADRD cases. After adjustment for confounding variables including sex, race, baseline lipid measurements, education, BMI, and lipid-lowering treatment, participants in the highest quintile of total cholesterol variability had a 19% increased risk of incident AD/ADRD, and those in highest quintile of triglycerides, variability had a 23% increased risk. DISCUSSION: In a large EHR derived cohort, those in the highest quintile of variability for total cholesterol and triglyceride levels had an increased risk of incident AD/ADRD. Further studies to identify the mechanisms behind this association are needed.

Prevalence of Heart Failure Stages in a Universal Health Care System: The Military Health System Experience.

BACKGROUND: Morbidity and mortality related to heart failure are increasing and disparities are widening. These alarming trends, often confounded by access to care, are poorly understood. This study evaluates the prevalence of all stages of heart failure by race and socioeconomic status in an environment with no access barrier to care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional observational study of adult beneficiaries aged 18 to 64 years of the Military Health System (MHS), a model for universal health care for fiscal years 2018-2019. We calculated prevalence of preclinical (stages A/B) or clinical (stages C/D) heart failure stages as defined by professional guidelines. Results were analyzed by age, race, and socioeconomic status (using military rank as a proxy). RESULTS: Among 5,440,761 MHS beneficiaries aged 18 to 64 years, prevalence of preclinical and clinical heart failure was 18.1% and 2.5%, respectively. Persons with preclinical heart failure were middle aged, with similar proportions of men and women, while those with heart failure were older, mainly men. After multivariable adjustment, male sex (1.35 odds ratio [OR] [preclinical]; 1.95 OR [clinical]), Black race (1.64 OR [preclinical]; 1.88 OR [clinical]) and lower socioeconomic status were significantly associated with large increases in the prevalence of all stages of heart failure. CONCLUSION: All stages of heart failure are highly prevalent among MHS beneficiaries of working age and, in an environment with no access barrier to care, there are striking disparities by race and socioeconomic status. The high prevalence of preclinical heart failure, particularly notable among Black beneficiaries, delineates a critical time window for prevention.

Co-Occurrence of Social Risk Factors and Associated Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure.

Background Among patients with heart failure (HF), social risk factors (SRFs) are associated with poor outcomes. However, less is known about how co-occurrence of SRFs affect all-cause health care utilization for patients with HF. The objective was to address this gap using a novel approach to classify co-occurrence of SRFs. Methods and Results This was a cohort study of residents living in an 11-county region of southeast Minnesota, aged ≥18 years with a first-ever diagnosis for HF between January 2013 and June 2017. SRFs, including education, health literacy, social isolation, and race and ethnicity, were obtained via surveys. Area-deprivation index and rural-urban commuting area codes were determined from patient addresses. Associations between SRFs and outcomes (emergency department visits and hospitalizations) were assessed using Andersen-Gill models. Latent class analysis was used to identify subgroups of SRFs; associations with outcomes were examined. A total of 3142 patients with HF (mean age, 73.4 years; 45% women) had SRF data available. The SRFs with the strongest association with hospitalizations were education, social isolation, and area-deprivation index. We identified 4 groups using latent class analysis, with group 3, characterized by more SRFs, at increased risk of emergency department visits (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33 [95% CI, 1.23-1.45]) and hospitalizations (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.28-1.58]). Conclusions Low educational attainment, high social isolation, and high area-deprivation index had the strongest associations. We identified meaningful subgroups with respect to SRFs, and these subgroups were associated with outcomes. These findings suggest that it is possible to apply latent class analysis to better understand the co-occurrence of SRFs among patients with HF.